Analysts expect U.S. jobs data to face further major revisions this year, after recent downward adjustments angered President Donald Trump and led him to fire the nation’s top employment statistician. Goldman Sachs said in a note over the weekend that preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), set for release in September, will likely show a 550,000 to 950,000 downward revision for the 12 months through March 2025.
While most of that period covers Joe Biden’s presidency rather than Trump’s second term, the revisions come amid heightened White House criticism of the BLS. Following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report and steep downward revisions to previous months, Trump accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately skewing data to hurt his administration and promptly removed her from the role.
The July report showed only 73,000 jobs added compared to forecasts of 110,000. Figures for May and June were also cut by a combined 258,000 jobs. Within hours, Trump announced McEntarfer’s dismissal, saying he would appoint “someone much more competent and qualified.” Without offering evidence, he claimed the data was “rigged” to damage Republicans and his presidency.
Trump pointed to last year’s annual benchmark revision, when the BLS found that 818,000 fewer jobs had been created than initially reported for the period through March 2024. This was later revised again to a 598,000 overestimate. He incorrectly called that a record change, although the 2009 revision was larger at 902,000. If Goldman’s high-end projection of a 950,000 cut holds, it would be the largest downward revision since records began in 1979.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the recent data makes it “very, very likely” the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting, though he stressed more confirmation is needed. The White House said McEntarfer’s tenure reflected a “lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence” that had “eroded public trust” in the BLS.
Pollster Nate Silver argued that removing the commissioner will not change the economic impact of tariffs but will undermine confidence in U.S. economic leadership and could pressure other agencies to align with political interests.
Trump said he would name a replacement within “three, four days.” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed that Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski will serve as acting commissioner in the meantime.
