President Trump is beginning to face warning signs from independent voters as his approval rating with the group shows signs of erosion. According to new data from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s net approval among independents hit its lowest point of his second term on Tuesday, with his disapproval rating among unaffiliated voters climbing above 60 percent for the first time since he took office.
The drop in support from independents coincides with a broader dip in Trump’s overall approval throughout June. Analysts say dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy may be a central factor driving the shift, potentially opening a window for Democrats who have been struggling to rebuild their political coalition heading into 2026.
“Right now, the independents are the moving factor,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ. “He’s holding his base, and Democrats still overwhelmingly disapprove of him. So the swing you’re seeing is coming from independents.”
Independent voters were a crucial component of Trump’s successful 2024 campaign. A recent report from Pew Research Center shows that while Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris essentially tied among independents, that still represented a 9-point gain for Trump compared to his 2020 performance with the group.
Among Republicans, Trump’s approval remains strong, consistently in the 80s, while Democratic approval continues to hover in the low-to-mid teens. But approval among independents has proven more volatile, with noticeable movement month to month.
Tranter emphasized that while the recent changes among independents are meaningful, they’re still relatively modest compared to larger shifts in past elections and independents, while influential, make up only a limited share of the overall electorate. Still, the trend is being closely watched as a potential early warning sign for Trump’s political standing.
