President Trump’s newest round of tariffs is projected to raise the cost of living for American families — creating a potential political headache for both the president and Republicans in Congress, who won in 2024 by promising to make everyday essentials more affordable.
Six months into Trump’s second term, prices for groceries and other staples like cars remain elevated, fueling public frustration and eroding the president’s approval ratings. Even “cheap” items are sparking outrage online, from the price of McDonald’s hash browns to Coca-Cola. While eggs have dipped slightly, the cost of chicken, ground beef, and orange juice remains higher than last year.
Inflation has steadied at 2.7 percent, but Federal Reserve officials are wary of new price spikes — a concern that has put Fed Chair Jerome Powell at odds with Trump, who is pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. Economists warn the tariffs will push costs even higher, with some estimates saying a typical family of four could pay an extra $2,400 annually.
Republican strategists caution that inflation could become a political anchor in next year’s elections. While some argue rate cuts might boost voters’ confidence in the economy, others note that lowering prices across the board is far more difficult — and in some cases, economically undesirable.
Polls show a growing share of Americans view the economy as Trump’s responsibility, especially after his April “Liberation Day” announcement imposing sweeping tariffs on major trading partners. His approval rating has slipped to the high 30s, with especially poor marks on tariffs and jobs.
An analysis by the Yale Budget Lab found the new tariffs could raise prices by nearly 2 percent in the short term, with the highest average effective tariff rate since 1933. That has some Republicans on Capitol Hill bracing for blowback. Sen. Josh Hawley has proposed $600 rebate checks per person to offset costs, while Sen. Rand Paul has warned that history shows tariff policies can be politically disastrous.
Democrats, battling their own low approval ratings, see the cost-of-living issue as a way to regain control of Congress. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called Trump’s 35 percent tariff on Canada “a dagger aimed at the heart of Upstate New York,” and New England Democrats slammed the administration’s energy policies for driving up utility bills.
Still, some GOP strategists argue Democrats lack the organization and message discipline to capitalize. With the election 15 months away, they say the economy’s trajectory in the final stretch will determine not just Trump’s fate, but the balance of power in Congress.